Threat to Public Security as a Legal Category

This article examines the theoretical and legal construction of the category of a “threat to public security” in the context of current legislation. A threat to public security cannot be understood in isolation: it constitutes an institutional synthesis, or organic unity, of three fundamental categories — challenge, as a signaling form; danger, as an objective basis; and risk, as a behavioral and probabilistic factor. Only within this synthetic unity does it acquire its full legal nature, enabling the effective management of public security within the strategic planning system. The article substantiates the argument that existing legislative acts and strategic planning documents — Federal Law No. 390-FZ of 28 December 2010 “On Security,” the current National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation, and the Concept of Public Security in the Russian Federation, which has de facto ceased to have effect — do not provide a clear system for distinguishing between the concepts of “challenge,” “danger,” “risk,” and “threat.” This leads to their unjustified conflation in law-enforcement practice and strategic planning documents. The aim of the study is to develop an integrative model of a threat to public security by examining it in dynamic interrelation with the concepts of “challenge,” “danger,” and “risk” as stages of a single destructive process, with a view to its subsequent legislative enshrinement. The methodological basis of the study is an interdisciplinary approach that integrates systems analysis, which makes it possible to consider a threat within the hierarchy of related concepts; theoretical and legal analysis of normative sources; and elements of risk theory. This approach makes it possible to trace the transformation of quantitative risk parameters and qualitative characteristics of challenges into the legal reality of a threat, as recorded in legislation and strategic planning documents. Particular attention is paid to the evolution of the conceptual apparatus from the 2013 Concept of Public Security in the Russian Federation, which has ceased to have effect, to current strategic planning documents. On the basis of the findings obtained, the Authors propose a four-stage model — “challenge – danger – risk – threat” — which reveals the logic of escalation of destructive processes in the sphere of public security. For each stage, the Authors formulate definitions and describe the corresponding measures: monitoring, planning of preventive measures, calculation of resources, and introduction of special regimes. The theoretical significance of the study lies in the institutional synthesis of previously fragmented concepts into a unified theoretical and legal construct. Its practical significance consists in the possibility of using the proposed model in the development of a new strategic planning document in the field of public security, thereby ensuring continuity with earlier documents and legal certainty for law-enforcement authorities.

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